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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit almost five times more global warming pollution than official data show, according to a recent analysis.

Widening Discrepancy In Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just 19% lower CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles, based on analysis carried out by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab tests, which suggested a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts examined data from onboard fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official estimates, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior analyst involved in the study. “This discrepancy is growing and creates a significant issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of miles driven in battery power compared to total distance. The team determined that just 27% of driving was completed in electric mode, whereas official estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than lab projections. This occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful enough to operate alone, leading to engines burning gasoline for nearly one-third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several major automaker groups to avoid over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 more annually in operating expenses than is estimated under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the mark,” stated a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are helping the environment and saving costs. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running costs.”

Political Discussion and Automotive Pressure

Plug-in hybrid cars have lately been brought again into policy discussions as automakers have lobbied the European Union to relax CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from member states with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior officials have proposed PHEVs as a possible “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

One independent energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the research, described the analysis a “very useful contribution” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to properly assess actual CO2 output.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap in lab and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for petrol or conventional cars,” they said. “Any policy changes regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering this evidence.”